I reckon there’s a 50/50 chance of it shipping.
I paid in the region of $100 for mine. They are now trying to take a $800 product and make it cheap enough to ship for $100. At the moment the updates are mainly around design, with very little in the way of engineering detail.
If you need the money it seems they are refunding people pretty reliably, so that’s an option. In terms of actually getting a product, maybe autumn if they do somehow manage to reduce the price of this box 10x. The official estimate is summer, but I’d take that with a pinch of salt.
On the upside if they do manage to pull off this remarkable engineering feat then you’ll be getting a two way device rather than a downlink only.